What to Expect in 2025 – 3 hurdles to resilient, antifragile supply chains

In the ever-evolving landscape of global commerce, resilience in supply chains has never been more crucial. As businesses navigate the complexities of a post-pandemic world, the ability to anticipate and manage supply chain disruptions is paramount. This article explores the key factors supply chain professionals should be aware of as they step into 2025, allowing them to plan their businesses to continue to thrive amidst uncertainty.

2024 lingering in 2025

Existing geopolitical conflicts will continue to impact supply chains globally in 2025. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict will likely persist, with sanctions against Russia remaining in place. Although there is no formal ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine, recent discussions indicate a tentative willingness to negotiate, with both sides presenting strong conditions that have stalled progress. Given the lack of resolution, sanctions will probably continue on Russian-produced materials and resources, such as energy supplies like gas and fuel, as well as affecting intermodal services from China to Europe that utilize trans-Russia routes.

The situation in and around the Red Sea continues to remain tumultuous, with shippers needing to continue going around the Cape of Good Hope. Recent announcements from shipping lines about their 2025 services indicate continued rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, despite some attempts to resume transit via the Suez Canal, which were ultimately abandoned due to existing risks. It is expected that the Cape of Good Hope route will need to remain in place in 2025.

1. Political Changes and regulations pressures in Europe

Whilst experts forecast that the European region will continue to have growth momentum, a primary concern remains the economic strain. In Germany, potential changes in government may introduce limited fiscal measures with minimal growth impact before 2026. This could have potential impacts to the broader European supply chains. France's efforts to sharply reduce its deficit may face significant fiscal slippage, leading to potential legislative elections and political instability.

According to ING’s podcast, THINK aloud, tariffs in Europe are being introduced at a time when the economy is already experiencing weak growth. Carsten Brzeski, Global Head of Macro at ING, states that disagreements over fiscal policy in France and Germany further contribute to the economic difficulties. Meanwhile, in the UK, although tariffs also pose a risk, James Smith, ING’s Developed Markets Economist, suggests that the country is likely to outperform its European neighbours due to substantial increases in government spending.

These new and upcoming regulations will push for greater visibility and compliance in supply chains, impacting businesses globally. Regulatory changes can include stricter requirements for environmental standards, labour practices, and product safety. Companies must stay ahead of these changes by enhancing their compliance programs and leveraging technology to improve transparency and traceability in their supply chains.

These political shifts across Europe could affect economic stability and supply chains.

2. Climate Change

While 2025 might see milder impacts due to La Niña, the general trend of rising temperatures and extreme weather conditions will continue to affect supply chains. Climate change can disrupt transportation routes, damage infrastructure, and affect the availability of raw materials. Businesses must invest in resilient infrastructure and adopt sustainability practices to mitigate the impact of climate change on their operations.

3. Geopolitical instability

The global geopolitical landscape in 2025 will be marked by significant shifts and hotspots of tension. The Red Sea crisis, for instance, may have far-reaching implications for trade routes and regional stability.

Businesses must stay vigilant and adaptive in the face of these geopolitical developments. The ability to pivot strategies in response to political shifts will be critical for maintaining supply chain integrity and seizing new market opportunities. Furthermore, forging strong diplomatic and trade relations will be vital for navigating the complexities of the international landscape.

Strategic foresight and proactive risk management will be indispensable tools for businesses aiming to thrive in this unpredictable environment. By anticipating potential disruptions and building robust contingency plans, companies can enhance their resilience and secure a competitive edge in the global marketplace.

Working towards antifragility supply chains

An antifragile supply chain can handle the shocks and stresses that may lie ahead. Collaborating with a supply chain partner that enhances resilience is key. Such a partner brings strategic foresight, flexibility, adaptability, technological services, and a broad geographical reach.

Working with a resilient supply chain partner offers numerous benefits to a business:

• Enhanced Operational Continuity: Minimised disruptions ensure that business operations continue smoothly, even in the face of challenges.
• Competitive Advantage: A resilient supply chain can provide a significant edge over competitors by maintaining reliability and trustworthiness. A supply chain partner that can offer varied and interchangeable integrated services, like air, rail and ocean products.
• Risk Mitigation: Proactive risk management strategies help address potential threats before they become critical issues. A supply chain partner that offers solutions within this can be instrumental to finding ways through challenges.

Stepping into 2025

As we approach 2025, the landscape of supply chains will be shaped by various challenges including political changes, climate impacts, and geopolitical instability. However, by focusing on resilience and antifragility, businesses can not only withstand these disruptions but also thrive. Strategic foresight, robust risk management, and the right partnerships will be key to navigating the complexities ahead and ensuring sustained success in an uncertain world.